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oil: confusing correlation and causation
This is about the current state of the oil market. The fact that two things occur together (correlation) does not always mean that one causes the other. For example, every morning the rooster crows and...
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crude oil: from shortage to surplus
Until very recently, petroleum industry thinking about crude oil supplies has been dominated by what has been called “peak oil theory.” Developed by geologist and Shell Oil researcher M. King Hubbert...
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firming oil prices: seasonal strength or something more?
September through mid-January is the period of greatest seasonal strength in oil prices. Early in this period, refineries shift from making gasoline to supply drivers to manufacturing heating oil in...
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BP Energy Outlook 2016
BP just released its annual Energy Outlook. The company is projecting faster development of shale oil, coming mostly over the next few years from the US, than it previously thought. Renewable energy...
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the future of oil mega-projects
My friend Bruce pointed out in a comment last Friday that the shale oil explosion in the US has come very quickly, and as a surprise to most. Could there be a similar resurgence of the mega-projects...
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why have oil production costs fallen so much?
rules for commodities From years of analyzing oil, gas and metals mining–as well as watching agricultural commodities and high-rise real estate out of the corner of my eye–I’ve come to believe in two...
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oil inventories: rising or falling?
The most commonly used industry statistics say “rising.” However, an article in last Thursday’s Financial Times says the opposite. The difference? The FT’s assertion is that official statistics...
View Articleoil right now–the Iran situation
For almost a year I’ve owned domestic shale-related oil stocks, for several reasons: –the dire condition of the oil market, oversupplied and with inventories overflowing, had pushed prices down to what...
View Article$80 a barrel oil
cartel activity About a week ago, Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the three largest oil producers in the world (the US is #1), announced they were discussing the mechanics of restoring half of the 1.8...
View Articleenergy: oil
history –oil began replacing coal as fuel of choice in the early 20th century, but that loss was mostly offset by substitution of coal for wood, until… …at the end of WWII, Saudi Arabia, having lost...
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